Chance Covid-19

This article is from March 2020 during the first lock-down. 

Motivation

Über mich

Fast alles was über COVID-19 und über die damit zusammenhängende Krise berichtet wird, handelt ausschliesslich von den negativen Auswirkungen. Zusätzlichen kommt ein Einbruch des \u00d6lpreises und eine labile Situation an der Börse. Seit Jahren interessiere ich mich für Innovationsmanagement, habe dazu Kurse HSG, Oxford, IMD und Harvard besucht, sowie zuletzt meinen EMBA an der EPFL abgeschlossen und erlebe nun als Geschäftsleitungsmitglied eines KMU diese Situation hautnah mit. Aber ich sehe neben den medizinischen Aspekten und den kurzfristigen Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft und die gesellschaftlichen Abgründe auch eine riesen Chance für Unternehmen und alle Mitarbeiter.

Situation

Jeder der eine Management Fortbildung gemacht hat, kennt die Grundsätze des Change-Managements und somit den Ausspruch “Embrace the Change” – frei übersetzt “Lern die Veränderung lieben” oder zumindest “Lass Dich auf den Wandel ein”. Was COVID-19 nun defakto ist, ist ein Wandel, der uns alle betrifft. Viele Firmen zelebrierten besonders in ihrem Marketingmaterial ihre Innovationskraft, Kundenorientiertheit und Agilität im Alltag. Das können wir jetzt beweisen, weil wir grundsätzlich drei grosse \u00c4nderungen festhalten können:

  1. Eingeschränkte Mobilität: Weniger bis gar keine realen Kundenkontakte, Meetings, Geschäftsreisen, Messen, eingeschränkte Logistik bis hin zum stopp von Lieferketten. Die Auswirkungen spüren Lieferanten, wir selbst kommen dadurch vielleicht in Verzug, und auch unsere Kunden sind betroffen.
  2. Veränderte Nachfrage: Viele Geschäfte mussten auf Grund behördlicher Anordnung schliessen oder sind dadurch indirekt betroffen, was gesamtwirtschaftlich zu einer tendenziell generell kleineren Nachfrage führte. Aber Medizingerätehersteller, Kunststoff- und Verpackungsindustrie, e-Commerce und Geschäfte, die auf die geänderten Kundenbedürfnisse Angebote bereithalten können, erleben eine Umsatzsteigerung!
  3. Erhöhte Risikoaversion: Mit Krise meinen wir eine Situation auf die niemand gefasst ist und auch keine Rezepte bekannt sind, wie wir wieder aus der Problemsituation herauskommen. Also reagieren wir alle erstmal ähnlich, sichern unseren Status-Quo und bereiten uns auf schlimmeres (oder zumindest auf eine unbekannte Zeit) vor. Investitionen werden aufgeschoben oder zurückgezogen

Massnahmen

Daraus lassen sich folgende Massnahmen ableiten, die man unterteilen kann in kurz- und mittelfristige:

Szenario Planung

Keiner weiss, wie lange die Situation anhalten wird. Wir arbeiten also in einem Bereich mit grossen Unsicherheiten. Bei der Produkt-Roadmap, in der Forschung- & Entwicklungsabteilung oder in der Finanzplanung bei Wechselkursschwankungen haben wir Werkzeuge mit denen wir diese Unsicherheit fassbar machen können – wir sollten sie jetzt auch nutzen! Daher brauchen wir für COVID-19 verschiedene Szenarien um uns einen Überblick über diese Ungewissheit zu verschaffen. Klassisch kennt man die zwei Fälle Worst-Case, Best-Case – was zumindest schon mal ein Intervall für Zukunftsaussagen schafft. Die Fragestellung der Ungewissheit ist aber nicht nur eindimensional entlang der Dauer, sondern auch entlang anderer Faktoren, wie Kundennachfrage, Verkaufskanäle, Lieferketten, etc. Daraus ergibt sich ein mehrdimensionaler Lösungsraum, mit dem sich die Zukunft abschätzen , wenn auch nicht vorhersagen lässt.

Leiten Sie aus den Szenarien ihre sowieso nötigen Sofortmassnahmen ab. Das wird bei Vielen nach einer Analyse die Möglichkeit zu Kostensenkungen beinhalten. Beispielsweise einen Einstellungsstopp, Anmeldung für staatliche Unterstützungen wie Kurzarbeit oder Kürzung vom Werbebudget. Vielleicht kann man externe Aufträge (Consulting, Temporärarbeiten, Studentenarbeiten) zurückziehen oder zumindest nicht neu vergeben.

Es ist aber Vorsicht geboten, dass man dem Betrieb durch zu starke Kürzungen nicht zu sehr schadet, in dem man beispielsweise den Aussenvertrieb komplett einstellt, statt ihm digitale Werkzeuge zur Hand gibt und die gewonnene Arbeitszeit (keine Geschäftsreisen mehr) nun für digitale Weiterbildung und mehr virtuelle Meetings nutzen kann.

Whatsapp und Skype gehören vielleicht schon in unseren Alltag, aber eine wirkliche “Verkaufs-Show” mit mehreren Screens, professionell ausgeleuchtetem Videokonferenzhintergrund und Produkte-Visualisierungen brauchen natürlich auch Zeit in der Vorbereitung und Umsetzung. Am Anfang darf alles noch etwas amateurhaft sein, aber wer diese Krise gut meistert, hat im Nachhinein einen direkten Wettbewerbsvorteil gegenüber denjenigen, die immer noch zu ihren Kunden reisen müssen, weil sie gar keine andere Wahl haben. Wer sich also einigelt, wird nicht nur das Geschäft in der Krise verpassen, sondern auch zukünftig alt aussehen.

Ein Szenario darf also auch langfristiger ausgelegt sein, Elemente der Liquiditätsplanung , Refinanzierungsmöglichkeiten oder Umstrukturierungsprojekte beinhalten.

Kundenorientierung

Ziel dieser Massnahme ist es die bestehenden Umsätze zu schützen und kann in unterschiedliche Aspekte (entsprechend der Absätze) unterteilt werden. Analysieren sie ihre Bestandskunden und schauen sie, wer war für 80% ihres Umsatzes in der Vergangenheit verantwortlich. Wer hat das Potential nach der Krise grosse Aufträge zu vergeben, welche Kunden sind strategisch wichtig? Diese Gruppe wird ihre neue Fokus-Gruppe, denen sie das Leben so angenehm wie möglich machen sollten. Dabei können Sie sich nicht auf 100 Kunden konzentrieren, sondern sie müssen ihre Vertriebsorganisation sprichwörtlich darauf fokusieren. Alles, was der Kunde schon immer nervig\/zeitaufwendig\/teuer im Bestellprozess fand, sollte überdacht und bestmöglich entfernt werden. Wenn Liquidität ein Kundenproblem werden könnte, kann mit den internen Stellen abgeklärt werden, ob die Zahlungskonditionen für diese Kunden angepasst werden können. Gibt es Know-How in unserem Betrieb, das den Bestellprozess vereinfachen könnte, beispielsweise können wir bei den Zolldeklarationen unterstützen oder das direkt anbieten? \u00c4ndern wir für unsere VIP Kunden die INCOTERMS? Was das für den einzelnen Betrieb bedeutet, muss jede Organisation für sich evaluieren, aber Kunden werden den Weg des geringsten Widerstands gehen und das bedeutet heutzutage häufig online Vertriebskanäle gewinnen an Bedeutung.

Das Firmenergebnis kann man einfach mit folgender Formel modellieren:

Umsatzerwartung = Leads x Erfolgschance x durchschnittlicher Bestellwert pro Kunde / Verkaufszyklus

Wenn man also seine Anzahl Interessenten (Leads), die Wahrscheinlichkeit einen erfolgreichen Abschluss zu erzielen (Erfolgschance) , den durschnittlichen Wert einer einzelnen Bestellung erhöht, hat es einen gleichen Effekt auf den zu erwartenden Umsatz, wie wenn man die Dauer des Verkaufsprozesses (Verkaufszyklus) verkürzt.

Ganz grob könnte man Geschäftsabschlüsse in zwei Arten unterteilen. Ein einfaches, kurzfristiges Transaktionsgeschäft und ein langwieriger, komplexer Verhandlungserfolg – natürlich können die Empfehlungen
nicht für einen Verkauf über den Tresen beim Bäcker wie für die Vermarktung eines Neubauprojekts gelten, aber das Prinzip dahinter ist gleich.

Bei Ersteren sollte der Fokus auf aggressiver Lead-Generierung liegen, so dass man möglichst viele Kunden, einfach und zufriedenstellend bedienen kann. Hier könnte Know-How aus dem Kundendienst oder Innendienst helfen, Listen\/Kategorien mit Leads oder Interessenten zu erstellen und abzuarbeiten. Oder es könnte ganz praktisch bedeuten, dass der Bäcker Ware liefert oder direkt von Tür zu Tür verkauft, weil die Leute Angst vor dem Verlassen der Wohnung haben oder kein Bargeld anfassen wollen bevorzugen sie Kauf auf Rechnung oder kontaktlose Zahlungsmittel. Leads können auch aus dem After-Sales entstehen, viele Leute sitzen jetzt zu Hause und vielleicht wäre genau jetzt der richtige Zeitpunkt eine jährliche Wartung oder Servicetätigkeit vorzuverlegen.
Während im zweiten Fall (komplexe Deals) die Schwerpunkte auf der Erfolgs-Rate und der verkürzten Verkaufszyklendauer liegen sollten. Ohne Geschäftsreisen sind auch unsere Gegenüber leichter virtuell verfügbar, so dass man mehr Resourcen an den Tisch bekommt und mehr Meetings und somit Berührungspunkte mit dem Kunden schaffen kann. So könnte es in einem weiteren Schritt helfen, den CEO mit in die Verhandlungen zu holen, damit er Entscheidungswege verkürzen und Abschlüsse direkt mit der gegenüberliegenden Geschäftsleitung schneller und erfolgversprechender erzielen kann. Wie virtuelle Immobiliengeschäfte der Zukunft aussehen können, hat die RedInvest in Sursee gezeigt.

“Darf’s noch ein Stück Kuchen zum Kaffee sein? ” wäre ein praktisches Beispiel aus dem Caféhaus, wenn Marketingexperten von Up-selling und Cross-selling sprechen. Versuchen Sie den durchschnittlichen Bestellwert zu erhöhen, indem sie entweder Zusatzdienstleistungen, Ersatzteile, Erweiterungsmodule zusätzlich anbieten oder auf teurere Optionen, Premiummodelle oder Kombi-Angebote hinweisen, wenn der Kunde schon bereit ist den Kauf abzuschliessen. Hier können Daten aus der Vergangenheit helfen, einzuschätzen welches Kundensegment für welche Angebote besonders offen ist – oder wer im Caféhaus statt dem Kuchen lieber eine Schachtel Pralinen mit nach Hause nimmt.

Unsere Angebote bieten häufig ein unklares Sammelsurium an Dienstleistungen, die wir unter dem Label Qualität verstecken, aber eigentlich separat anbieten könnten: Lieferung frei Haus, Montage innerhalb zwei Arbeitstagen, Beratung länger als 15 Minuten, kostenloser Kundendienst bei Störung, Wartung jederzeit buchbar, Störungsbehebung innerhalb 5 Werktagen, Ersatzteile auf Lager … Nehmen wir die Dienstleistungen auseinander und zeigen wir auf, welche Leistungen in unserem Angebot stecken. So wird der Preis pro Artikel\Dienstleistung auf den ersten Blick günstiger. Was sie nicht möchten in Zeiten, in denen der Umsatz wegzubrechen droht, ist in einen Preiskampf verwickelt zu werden. Hüten Sie sich vor Preisreduktionen oder “Schnäppchen” – bieten sie einfach nur günstigere Alternativen an, die aber auch deutlich weniger leisten. Wenn es dann zum konkreten Verkaufsgespräch kommt, sollten wie oben erwähnt die Zusatzdienstleistungen wieder mit einfliessen. So lernen wir auch welche Eigenschaften “nice to have” sind, also auf die man auch ruhig verzichten kann – also ein Punkt um auch Kosten einzusparen, die mit der Aufrechterhaltung eines wenig beachteten Angebots zusammenhängen. Grundsätzliche Preiserhöhungen halte ich ebenfalls für gefährlich – besonders bei Bestandskunden – ausser sie können transparent aufzeigen und nachvollziehbar machen, dass diese direkt aus der Lieferkette kommen (beispielsweise erhöhte Logistikkosten).

Den Verkaufszyklus kann man beschleunigen, in dem man sich erstmal auf die potentiellen Kunden konzentriert, die sowieso bald abgeschlossen hätten (das funktioniert aber nur solange die Salespipeline gefüllt ist). Dann könnte man die Dauer von der Anfrage bis zur Offertstellung messen und als Unternehmenskennzahl als Ziel vorgeben – bzw. den Prozess dahinter analysieren, optimieren und mit mehr Ressourcen ausstatten, wie beispielsweise den freien Aussendienstmitarbeitern.

Wenn man an jeder Stell-Schraube in unserer Formel nur 5% Verbesserung erzielt, hat man den Umsatz bereits um über 21% gesteigert.

Preise verteidigen

Wie bereits erwähnt, muss ein Preiskampf vermieden werden. Akzeptieren wir also Mengenrückgänge vor Preissenkungen. Dafür gibt es vier Taktiken wie man zumindest die Marge aufrecht erhalten kann.

  1. Kämpfen: Härter in Preisverhandlungen mit Kunden gehen und vorsichtiger mit Rabatten arbeiten. Auch bei Lieferanten keinen Preiserhöhungen einfach so nachgeben.
  2. Alternativen fördern: Bieten wir neben dem Premium auch das Standard und die Budget-Varianten an – so kann der Kunde selbst wählen, was für seine Situation richtig ist.
  3. Unterscheidungsmerkmale hervorheben: Vergessen wir mal alles, was wir alle gleich machen und überlegen uns, was unser Angebot wirklich unterscheidet. Welcher Kunde ist dafür bereit etwas mehr zu zahlen? Hier können wir unsere Preise besser verteidigen.
  4. Neue Preismodelle einführen: In Krisen scheuen die meisten Unternehmen grössere Investitionen – ein Wechsel von CAPEX zu OPEX (von Einmalausgaben hin zu laufenden Kosten, wie ein Leasing statt Kauf) kann helfen. Stichwörter wie Value-based-pricing können ein Denkanstoss sein, wie man den Preis an der Nutzung ausrichten kann. Etwa ein Autoreifen könnte als Abo pro gefahrene km gemietet statt verkauft werden (vgl. Michelin) oder ein virtueller Arbeitsplatz pro Monat vermietet (vgl. Swisscom).

Mit diesen vier Punkten haben Firmen bewiesen, aus früheren Krisen gestärkt hervorgegangen zu sein. Wer die Punkte 2 und 3 beherrscht, kann Potential für neue Produktinnovationen erkennen und richtig bewerben. Das bedeutet klare Innovationsprozesse sind vorhanden und Markt-\/Preisüberlegungen sind sehr früh angestellt worden. So werden “nutzlose” Projekte auch frühzeitig gestoppt. Wer den Punkt 1 beherrscht, hat eine starke Position in seiner Wertschöpfungskette und kann diese weiter ausbauen. Das heisst, man kennt seine Kundschaft gut, kennt deren Bedürfnisse, den Wert des Angebots und die damit verbundene Zahlungsbereitschaft, somit den möglichen Preis für die passenden Produkte und welche Kosten das Unternehmen von der Supply Chain aufnehmen darf. Der 4. Punkt bietet der Organisation die Chance ganz neue Wege zu gehen und auch das Business Modell zu hinterfragen. Alle vier Punkte zusammen machen einen Innovations-Champion aus!

Geschäftsmodell und Ressourcenallokation


Plans are of little importance, but planning is essential.

Winston Churchill

Mittelfristig werden wir lernen müssen virtuelle Verkäufe abwickeln zu können. Wer es bis heute nicht kann, muss aufholen, wer es heute bereits kann, wird bemüht sein den Vorsprung nicht zu verlieren.

Wer glaubt, dass alles wieder so werden wird wie früher, übersieht, dass wer einmal die Vorteile des Onlineshoppings kennen gelernt hat, muss sich nun nicht mehr dazu überwinden – wie vor der Krise. COVID-19 zwingt fast alle Generationen – selbst Grosseltern ohne digitale Vorkenntnisse – in die digitale Welt. Es ergibt sich eine Art Hysteresekurve. Der physikalische Weg ins Geschäft wird umso mühsamer wahrgenommen je einfacher es wird darauf verzichten zu können. Wer einen tollen online Service kennen und lieben gelernt hat, wird – je länger die Krise dauert – auch nicht mehr darauf verzichten wollen oder die Ansprüche auch an den klassischen offline Vertrieb stellen, beispielsweise durch längere Ladenöffnungszeiten, personalisierte Beratung, Vorhalten von Lagerbeständen, etc.

Schematische Darstellung einer Hysteresekurve

Die Frage ist nicht entweder analog oder digital, sondern digital nun als unverzichtbare Komponente in der Krise zu erkennen und als Chance für die Zukunft, um Transaktionskosten zu senken und neue Impulse für Wachstum zu setzen.

Digitale Transformation heisst nicht einfach das gleiche online zu tun, was man bisher offline getan hat, sondern die Prozesse so neu zu gestalten, dass aus der Digitalisierung ein echter Mehrwert für Unternehmen, Kunden und Zulieferer besteht. Beispielsweise durch virtuelle Assistenten und durchsuchbare Datenbanken Zeit- und Kosteneinsparungen realisieren, schneller Bestandskunden ausbauen und mehr Neugeschäft generieren. Mit den neu gewonnenen Daten können Unternehmen weitere Werkzeuge entwickeln um Mengen und Preise zu balancieren und Entscheidungsprozesse zu unterstützen – mit dieser Unsicherheit des Corona-Virus oder anderen Volatilitäten.

Vielleicht braucht das aber auch erst einmal neue Systeme – die Anzahl an 3 Buchstaben-Abkürzungen ist dabei riesig CRMERPSCMBPM – am Ende muss das Unternehmen sich fragen, braucht es eine IT Abteilung, können wir das an Cloud-Dienstleister outsourcen, wie stellen wir sicher, dass wir weder das Rad neu erfinden, aber auch nicht wie in ein Fass ohne Boden investieren. Hilfreich kann hier die Zusammenarbeit mit bestehenden Online-Dienstleistern sein, bei Amazon kann man ab 50US$ im Monat als Händler ein weltweites Publikum ansprechen und beliefern – unglaublich, wenn man überlegt, was es kostet einen eigenen Shop zu planen, zu erstellen, zu betreiben und zu pflegen (was mehrere Jahre Arbeitszeit in Anspruch nehmen kann). Die Online-Welt ist kein Schlaraffenland, es ist genauso ein Marktplatz mit Kämpfen um Aufmerksamkeit, Kunden und beste Preise – und auch nicht immer fair.

Hier ist jede Organisation und auch Branchenverbände gefragt, um zu bewerten in wie fern sich die Verschiebung der Verkaufskanäle durch COVID-19 hin zu online dauerhaft auswirken wird und in welcher Form Investitionen in eine eigene IT sinnvoll und zielführend sind.

Ein weiterer bereits erwähnter Schritt kann der Wandel der Angebote von Investitionsausgaben (englisch capital expenditure – CAPEX) zu Betriebskosten (englisch operational expenditure – OPEX) sein, also einfach gesagt, nicht mehr alles Geld auf einmal mit einem Verkauf zu verdienen, sondern langfristig einen beispielsweise monatlichen Betrag einzunehmen, der zwar kleiner aber wiederkehrend ist. Das hat Auswirkungen auf den Cashflow im Unternehmen, die Liquiditätsplanung, bietet aber die Chance für eine wahlweise Flexibilität auch höhere Preise zu verlangen – konkret verschiedene Preise je nach Kündigungsfrist. Das Musterbeispiel aus der Business School ist Hyundai, die in der Krise 2008/2009 in den USA den Automarkt mit neuen Leasing und Service Angeboten umgekrempelt hatten und stärker aus der Krise kamen als alle anderen Hersteller (vgl. Buch). Als Handwerksbetrieb könnte man statt einer Waschmaschine für einmal 1000 Franken, ein Waschmaschinenabo inklusive Reinigungstabs und Service für 100 Franken im Monat anbieten.

Wer bereits eine grosse Anschaffung wie eine Maschine gekauft und amortisiert hat, wird durch die wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit eine geplante Neuanschaffung verschieben und eher einen Wartungs- oder Servicevertrag verlängern. Manchmal können mit “Retrofit”-Lösungen alte Produkte auf einen neuen Stand gebracht werden. Das möchte man in normalen Zeiten vermeiden, um die eigenen Verkäufe nicht zu kannibalisieren, aber die Umstände erlauben hier ein Umdenken. Ein gut geschulter Verkaufsberater kann zu einer neuen Vertrauensperson des Kunden werden, wenn er alternativen zum Kauf aufzeigen kann, die passen. Im oben genannten Beispiel könnte man die alte Maschine ggf. mit digitalen Sensoren aufrüsten, ein IoT Konzept anbieten und so über ein monatliches Cloud-Abo Mehrwert bieten und den Kunden an sich binden.
Das kann zur Folge haben, dass es weniger Personalbedarf in einer Abteilung und mehr in einer Anderen gibt. Daher sollten Geschäftsmodelle im Wandel nie als starre Konstrukte verstanden werden, sondern als Plan der grundsätzlich nicht 100% stimmt, aber der Vorgang des Planens an sich dem Unternehmen vor Augen führt, wo man steht und wo es hingehen soll. Wo also Handlungsbedarf besteht. Hier ist die Geschäftsleitung und die Teamleiter gefragt, die gut zusammenarbeiten muss, damit Informationen schnell fliessen und zielführend eingegriffen werden kann. Ich bin kein Fan der falsch zelebrierten Fehler-Kultur. Nicht der Fehler ist das Wichtige, sondern das aus dem Fehler Gelernte. Die Geschäftsleitung kann als Vorbild hier also “Fail Fast, Learn Faster” praktizieren und auch eine Unternehmenskultur prägen, die Experimente und Lernen wertschätzt (vgl. Harvard Business Review März\2020).

Prinzip Giesskanne oder Schrottflinte (noch etwas wilder) funktionieren bei der Planung jedoch nicht – hohe Volatilitäten und Unsicherheiten verlangen, dass man sich zumindest an Hand grober Dimensionen ein etwas detaillierteres Bild der Situation macht. Es sollte vom Aufwand im Tagesgeschäft machbar sein, die Verkaufskanäle, Produktsegmente und Kundensegmente nach dem Einfluss von COVID-19 und der eigenen Beeinflussbarkeit bewerten zu können. Also wo gibt es einen grossen oder kleinen Impact – und wo können wir etwas dagegen tun bzw. wo sind wir machtlos.

Wenn man das schnell hinbekommt, kann man sich die gleiche Überlegung auch für seine Konkurrenz überlegen und so neue Strategien entwickeln, um mehr Marktanteile zu sichern oder in neue Märkte vorzustossen, die die Konkurrenz nicht so schnell erfolgreich erreichen wird. Damit positioniert man sich auf die Seite der Gewinner der Krise und kommt gestärkt hervor. Weil man nie weiss, wie schnell die Konkurrenz ist, müssen potentielle Märkte und deren Teilnehmer aktiv überwacht werden um gute wie schlechte Ideen nicht zu verpassen und daraus zu lernen.

Und wenn man erkennt, dass garnichts mehr geht – dann kann man auch gleich sofort umsatteln, wie der Staubsaugerhersteller Dyson oder der Getränkehersteller Ramazotti – die kurzerhand (vielleicht waren die Pläne schon länger in einer Schublade) ihre Produktion auf ein Segment umgestellt haben, das besonders gefragt ist, Beatmunsgeräte und Desinfektionsmittel. Eine Schneiderin, die heute keine Aufträge mehr hat, kann umstellen auf die Produktion eines provisorischen wiederverwendbaren Mundschutz aus Stoff.

Ausblick

Ich empfinde es eine der spannendsten Aufgaben in der heutigen Zeit diesen Wandel miterleben und gestalten zu dürfen. Wir stehen als Gesellschaft vor grossen Herausforderungen, die uns alle betreffen. Es steht viel auf dem Spiel – aber die Angst darf uns nicht lähmen. Nehmen wir den Stillstand wie einen Sabbatical als kurze Verschnaufpause, erkennen wir in dieser Situation auch Chancen neben all den Risiken und packen wir es gemeinsam an, denn nicht nur Manager sind gefragt, jeder und jede im Unternehmen trägt weiterhin zum Gelingen bei, ob im Krisenstab, im Home-Office oder in der Kurzarbeit – wir müssen füreinander da sein.

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